Tofte, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

863
FXUS63 KDLH 201949
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
249 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog around the Twin Ports and the North Shore,
  and into the Arrowhead, is possible again tonight into Sunday
  morning, and again Monday morning.
- On and off rain showers with a few non-severe thunderstorms
  are expected through this evening and again Sunday. Rain
  chances on Monday will be limited to east of US-53.
- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures through much of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Low level moisture remains very high this afternoon, with
persistent weak low level lift and south to southeast winds. As
a result, low cigs and fog continue to impact locations near the
Twin Ports and over the Arrowhead. Elsewhere, skies are mostly
cloudy to overcast with higher ceilings. A couple smaller upper
level lows are rotating through broader troughing that extends
from the Canadian Rockies to the Ohio River Valley. These lows
are providing enough lift for isolated to scattered showers. A
few scattered showers and a band of heavier showers and a few
thunderstorms has developed over The Twin Ports and northern WI
this afternoon, where a weak instability axis stretches
northward. This activity will continue northward this afternoon,
although instability is expected to quickly diminish this
evening. Another night of low clouds and fog is expected with
light winds and high low level moisture. A dense fog advisory
might become necessary along portions of the North Shore and
inland over portions of the Iron Range.
Tomorrow and tomorrow night look very similar to today, with the
only difference being the upper low tracks over the Northland,
providing more lift. Expect better coverage of scattered showers
and a few storms with better lapse rates and instability. Shear
parameters remain low and severe storms are not expected. Low
level moisture will remain high, especially across the eastern
half of the forecast area Sunday night, leading to another night
of low clouds and fog.
As the upper low moves to the east Monday, drier air will wrap
around the western side of the low with any rain chances confined
to the Arrowhead and northwest WI. Highs will be in the mid 60s
to mid 70s, with sunnier skies returning. The upper low gets
caught over the Great Lakes due to weak upper level flow. It
retrogrades Tuesday into Wednesday as it rotates around another
upper low moving out of the Plains toward the Midwest, becoming
absorbed into broader troughing as it amplifies over the Ohio
River Valley. The Northland will be on the periphery of
increased moisture, but guidance remains dry. Ridging builds
through the Plains and into southern Canada, leading to dry
conditions and warming temperatures in the 60s to mid 70s each
day. Low temperatures remain in the mid 40s or warmer each
night, until late next week, when we might see low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A mix of flying conditions from VFR at BRD to LIFR at DLH cover
the Northland this afternoon. Scattered showers will continue to
rotate south to north this afternoon, with a 20-40% chance at
any terminal of light rain. There is also a low chance of a
thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly at DLH and HYR. Otherwise,
low cigs and light rain/drizzle will continue across the area as
low level moisture remains high. Winds through the afternoon
will be from the southeast to south, at 5-10kts with a few gusts
up to 18kts.
This evening, expect to cigs and vis conditions to drop once
again, with LIFR conditions and light and variable winds are
most terminals overnight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Northeast winds will continue to diminish this afternoon and
evening. Lingering swells will keep wave heights of 1 to 4ft
and will maintain the Small Craft Advisories for the North
Shore and the Twin Ports through 4pm. A thunderstorm or two is
possible this afternoon into the evening over western Lake
Superior. These could produce a wind gusts of 25-30kts. Wind
speeds continue to decrease tonight to the 5 to 10 knot range
before becoming light and variable on Sunday, and then back to
the northeast for Monday. Once wave heights decrease today and
tonight, they should remain 2 feet or less through Sunday and
Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion