Tohlakai, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

400
FXUS65 KABQ 060722
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
122 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Saturday evening. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to
  flooding in areas of poor drainage, urban arroyos, and around
  wildfire burn scars. A few storms may become strong with high
  winds, hail, and frequent lightning strikes.
- A warming and drying trend will occur Sunday and Monday with
  isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible for
  eastern areas.
- Wetter and active weather looks to return Wednesday through
  Friday with a greater coverage of showers and storms with heavy
  rainfall, especially across western and central New Mexico.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 122 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A shortwave embedded in the large scale northwest flow across
eastern NM is allowing showers with some embedded thunderstorms to
continue overnight across the central and south central highlands
and ABQ Metro. Meanwhile, low clouds have settled in along and east
of the Continental Divide due to upslope flow behind a backdoor
front that moved through this part of the state on Friday. Some
patchy drizzle and fog cannot be ruled out along and east of the
central mountain chain through mid Saturday morning.  With fog
already being observed at Raton Pass, Las Vegas and Clines Corners,
have gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the zones
stretching from Raton Pass down to Clines Corners. Low clouds will
slowly erode after sunrise across the RGV and around midday along
and east of the central mountain chain. Across western NM, clearer
skies along with another weak shortwave moving through will allow
for the development of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours. These showers and
storms will move east into the RGV, including the Santa Fe and ABQ
Metro, during the late afternoon and evening hours. Those heading to
the state fair in Albuquerque will have be prepared for the
possibility of these storms and take shelter when told to do so by
local officials. Storms look to move into the highlands of central
NM with lingering showers across the RGV and the highlands during
the evening hours. The far eastern plains near the TX border look to
remain dry Saturday evening and night due to more stable air
remaining across this part of the state. Now in terms of the HPCC
and Ruidoso area burn scars for today, the low clouds in the morning
should help to delay shower and storm development to the mid
afternoon hours. Additionally temperatures in the 50s and 60s should
help limit heavy rainfall rates like today. However, potential still
exists for heavy thunderstorms to develop over the burn scar and
cause resultant flash flooding, so the Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for the zones containing the burn scars. Showers and
thunderstorms should fully taper off around midnight with clouds
clearing from west to east early Sunday morning. With the drying mid
and upper levels combined with low surface dewpoint depressions, low
clouds and fog cannot be ruled out across valley locations across
western and central NM and the eastern plains around sunrise Sunday.
Dry northwest flow and shortwave ridging moves into the region on
Sunday helping to result in a much drier day across the state. A few
isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out along and east of
the central mountain chain due to southerly flow at the surface
keeping higher moisture across this part of the state. Temperatures
will also be warmer and closer to normal areawide for early
September due to much clearer skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The long term period will start off pretty quiet on Monday as
shortwave ridging continues moving east directly over the state.
Some isolated showers and storms will be possible across the far
southern high terrain during the afternoon and early evening due to
higher moisture lingering across this part of the state.
Tuesday marks the beginning of a transition back to a more active
pattern as moist south-southwest flow ahead of an upper low over the
Pacific NW brings moisture back into western and central NM. This
increase in moisture combined with daytime heating will allow for
isolated shower and thunderstorm development across the western and
central higher terrain during the afternoon and evening with
activity lingering across the Four Corners region overnight due to
increasing upper level divergence ahead of the upper low. A higher
coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity is looking to be the
case across western and central NM Wednesday through Friday due to
moist south-southwest flow continuing over the state between an
upper high over the Great Plains and an upper low slowly moving east
and northeast over the Great Basin. Additionally, with the stronger
south-southwest flow aloft and the southeast flow at the surface,
effective bulk shear will be adequate enough for storms to become
strong to severe. QUicker southwest to northeast storm motions
should help to limit the flash flood threat on the HPCC burn scar,
outside of the case of several rounds of thunderstorms impacting the
burn scar. Ruidoso looks to be on the southern and eastern edge of
the higher shower and thunderstorm coverage with any showers and
storms moving quickly northeast away from the burn scar.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Low clouds have settled in across much of eastern NM due to upslope
flow behind a backdoor front. This along with light to moderate
showers and areas of patchy fog across the northeast and central
highlands will result MVFR to LIFR conditions. Some light showers
will VFR low clouds will also continue across the Rio Grande Valley,
including KABQ, KAEG and KSAF finally tapering off just before
sunrise Saturday. Low clouds/patchy fog across eastern NM will
linger through the morning hours slowly burning off late morning
into midday. Meanwhile, clearer skies across western NM will allow
for the development of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms midday moving east into the RGV and central NM come
the late afternoon and evening. A few of the stronger cells will be
capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and
erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT. Storms will likely not make into the
eastern plains TAF sites due to running into more stable conditions
across this part of the state. Clearing skies across western NM
along with some lingering showers across central NM at the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
No critical fire weather conditions expected through late next week.
Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
today before drier and warmer weather returns Sunday and Monday. A
transition to a wetter pattern across western and central NM begins
Tuesday continuing for the rest of the workweek. Some of these storms
next Wednesday through Friday could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main threats.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  81  57  85  57 /  50  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  74  41  81  43 /  80  30  10   0
Cuba............................  72  49  80  51 /  80  20   5   0
Gallup..........................  77  50  82  50 /  50  10   0   0
El Morro........................  73  50  79  51 /  80  30   5   0
Grants..........................  74  50  83  51 /  80  30   5   0
Quemado.........................  75  51  80  52 /  60  20   5   0
Magdalena.......................  73  54  80  58 /  80  30  10   0
Datil...........................  71  49  78  52 /  80  30  10   0
Reserve.........................  79  50  86  53 /  60  20  10   0
Glenwood........................  82  55  90  58 /  60  20  10   0
Chama...........................  67  42  75  43 /  80  40  20   0
Los Alamos......................  68  52  76  55 /  70  30  10   0
Pecos...........................  69  50  78  51 /  70  40  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  68  47  76  49 /  70  40  10   0
Red River.......................  60  40  67  41 /  60  40  20   0
Angel Fire......................  65  36  71  35 /  70  30  20   0
Taos............................  71  46  79  47 /  60  30  10   0
Mora............................  65  45  74  46 /  70  30  20   5
Espanola........................  74  52  84  53 /  70  30   5   0
Santa Fe........................  70  53  78  55 /  70  40   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  73  51  81  53 /  70  40   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  77  61  85  64 /  70  40   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  59  87  63 /  70  30   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  58  89  62 /  70  30   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  79  59  88  62 /  70  30   0   0
Belen...........................  81  56  88  59 /  70  30   0   0
Bernalillo......................  79  58  88  61 /  70  30   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  81  56  88  58 /  70  30   0   0
Corrales........................  80  59  89  61 /  70  30   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  81  57  88  60 /  70  30   0   0
Placitas........................  76  56  83  59 /  70  40   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  79  59  88  61 /  70  30   0   0
Socorro.........................  81  59  89  63 /  70  30   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  51  80  55 /  70  40   5   0
Tijeras.........................  73  54  80  57 /  70  40   5   0
Edgewood........................  72  49  82  52 /  70  40   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  48  83  50 /  70  40   5   0
Clines Corners..................  68  51  76  53 /  70  40   5   0
Mountainair.....................  72  51  80  55 /  80  40   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  72  52  80  55 /  70  40   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  75  57  82  61 /  70  40  20   0
Ruidoso.........................  66  51  74  55 /  80  30  30   5
Capulin.........................  70  49  75  51 /  20  20  10   5
Raton...........................  71  49  79  50 /  30  20  10   0
Springer........................  73  50  80  50 /  40  20  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  67  49  77  49 /  60  40  10   5
Clayton.........................  72  55  80  58 /  10  10  10  10
Roy.............................  69  52  78  55 /  30  30  10  10
Conchas.........................  75  58  84  60 /  30  40  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  73  56  83  57 /  50  50  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  74  55  81  58 /  20  40  10  20
Clovis..........................  74  59  83  61 /  20  40  20  20
Portales........................  74  59  83  61 /  20  40  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  75  59  84  61 /  30  50  10  10
Roswell.........................  79  62  87  64 /  40  40  10   5
Picacho.........................  74  55  83  57 /  60  30  20   5
Elk.............................  70  52  80  55 /  70  30  20   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ215-223-
227>229.
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-226-229.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion