Tolacon, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

874
FXUS65 KFGZ 082015
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
116 PM MST Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected for the start of
the week. Expect breezy and cooler weather from Wednesday through
Friday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions
develop again for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A slow moving trough will meander through the western
states for the next week or so, significantly changing our weather.
Ahead of the trough, much drier mid-level air has moved into Arizona
today and has capped the atmosphere. High hghts and anti-cyclonic
flow will transition to lower hghts and cyclonic flow as early as
Tuesday. This also means increased southwest winds, especially
Wednesday and Thursday, as the trough moves into the Great Basin.
The trough may tap into some of the remnant monsoonal moisture pool
by mid-week, which could lead to some stronger thunderstorms. The
best chance for this moisture tap looks like eastern Arizona. The
bigger story is the winds, which may top 40 mph by Thursday, this
will be the most wind seen in some time. Fire danger isn`t horrible
right now, but this pattern will need to be watched.
By next weekend, the trough ejects and winds will come down. The air
mass trailing the trough will be quite dry, so expect a sunny and
seasonably cool weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Monday 08/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible in vicinity of KJTC before 03Z. Winds W/SW
5-10 kts, becoming VRB after 02Z.
OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/18Z through Thursday 11/18Z...VFR conditions.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible in vicinity of KJTC and 0V7/E91 Wednesday.
Daytime winds S/SW 10-15 kts on Tuesday, increasing to 15-20 kts on
Wednesday. Overnight winds will likely remain elevated downwind of
the higher terrain Tuesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and warm conditions,
outside of a slight chance for showers and thunderstorm across
eastern Arizona on Wednesday. South through southwest winds 10-20
mph each day, gusts up to 35 mph by Wednesday. Minimum RH values
15-30% each day.
Thursday through Saturday...Turning cooler. Slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, mainly across the
eastern-half of the state. South through southwest winds 10-20 mph
Thursday, with gusts up to 35 mph. South winds from 10-20 mph on
Friday, becoming southwest 5-15 mph for Saturday. Minimum RH values
around 15-35% on Thursday, 10-30% for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Meola
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion