Tolono, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

805
FXUS63 KILX 030735
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
235 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20% chance of isolated pop-up showers today east of the Illinois
  River Valley. Rainfall amounts to be unimpactful.
- 20-25 mph wind gusts and dry conditions Saturday and Sunday to
  increase the fire danger risk. Burning is highly discouraged
  this weekend.
- 30-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and temperatures to
  drop down to near normal as a cold front is expected to pass
  through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Skies won`t be completely clear today, as a diurnal cumulus field
should develop by mid day. There is a 20% chance of showers and
maybe some thunder, with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE in place,
today. Rainfall amounts aren`t expected to be a lot, potentially a
couple hundredths. Locations of where these pop-up showers may
occur is east of the Illinois River Valley. These pop-up showers
will be isolated in nature, so most of the forecast area can
expect to not see any H2O from the sky.
High pressure will linger over the region through much of the
weekend, but with a low pressure developing over the Rockies the
next few days. This low pressure off to the west will tighten the
pressure gradient over the region, increasing winds by
Saturday.The strongest winds will remain off to the west/northwest
of central IL. However, there is still a 30-60% chance of gusts
greater than 20 mph Saturday west of I-55. On Sunday, there is a
50-80% chance of wind gusts greater than 20 mph north of I-70.
(probabilities based off the probabilistic NBM) Increased fire
danger is expected over the weekend due to these breezier winds
and the dry state of the environment. Use caution with anything
that could ignite a fire and be mindful of burn bans in place.
Burning is highly discouraged both Saturday and Sunday.
That low pressure developing over the Rockies will drift
northwesterly through the weekend. It will drag along a cold front
that will begin moving through the Midwest early next week. This
cold front will bring chances for rain and cooler temperatures.
Currently, there is a widespread 30-50% chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be
drought busting. The LREF is showing a 20-40% chance that rainfall
amounts exceed 0.25 inch.
Highs will continue to be in the upper 80s to near 90 into the new
week. There is hope for closer to normal temperatures on the
horizon. Normal for this time of the year is in the low 70s. Behind
the cold front late Tuesday, temperatures will cool into the 70s.
Wednesday looks to be the coolest day we have seen in quite a while,
with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 40s. The LREF is showing a
50-70% chance of highs less than 70 degrees Wednesday. Temperatures
appear to warm up into the upper 70s by late week.
Copple
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours, with cloud heights
generally in the 5-6kft range. Some of the high-resolution models
hint at some light shower activity, though coverage appears sparse
enough to preclude a PROB30 mention at this point.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion