Tornillo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

543
FXUS64 KEPZ 270449
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1049 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. A few
   storms could be strong with heavy rainfall and wind gusts.
   Best chances for rain will be Sunday morning and afternoon,
   especially east of the Rio Grande.
- Drier and warmer weather next week. Lowlands highs in the upper
   eighties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Radar currently seeing light rain showers across northern
Chihuahua and along the International Border. This weak activity
will hang around over the next few hours as it decays, leading to
a dry but cloudy Saturday morning.
Big picture weather pattern shows a deep closed low over southern
California, and an upper ridge over southern Texas. The El Paso
region sits in between these two features, in prevailing southwest
flow aloft. Moisture content is slightly above normal, with
precipitable water values 1.0-1.2".
Short-term models have backed off considerably on rain chances for
Saturday, decreasing storm coverage quite a bit in recent runs.
This is likely due to models picking up on morning cloud coverage
and lack of surface heating eroding instability and delaying
convective initiation Saturday afternoon. Shortwave aloft models
have been resolving within the broadly diffluent flow is also
delayed. Right now, storm coverage for Saturday afternoon looks
way more isolated (10-20%) than previous forecasts insinuated.
Tomorrow will also be a bit cooler, with lowland highs in the
lower 80s.
Best rain chances look to highest Saturday night into Sunday
morning as a vort max moves up the Rio Grande valley. Uptick in
coverage will likely occur after sunset tomorrow, with scattered
to numerous rain showers overnight into Sunday. Overnight flood
threat will be something to monitor.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the day on
Sunday, especially east of the Rio Grande as the plume of deeper
moisture shift east during the day. Main concern will be flooding,
especially for the Sacramento Mountains and Lincoln National
Forest. Otero and Hudspeth Counties currently have the highest QPF
of our forecast area on Sunday. New rain amounts 0.50-1.00" for
many areas there.
Monday will be the beginning of a drying trend, as the Pacific low
opens up and progresses over the Central Rockies. Rain chances
hang around Monday afternoon, especially over central New Mexico
and the Sacramento Mountains. Most of the I-10 corridor will stay
dry on Monday.
Upper high pressure builds in to the U.S. Southwest Tuesday
through the rest of the week, bringing and end to rain chances as
allowing temperatures to climb back to above normal by next
Wednesday. Lowland highs will return to the upper 80s, and we may
even see a few more 90s in El Paso. Long term outlook points to
the end of the 2025 Monsoon Season, with future rain chances
becoming increasingly influenced by the polar jet flow and Pacific
low pressure systems.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VMC expected to prevail overnight into Saturday. Scattered SHRA
across SW NM through 09Z, becoming dry thereafter. Skies generally
FEW-SCT080 BKN-OVC120 overnight with surface winds 280-310 at
06-10 knots. Cloudy skies Saturday morning, with lighter surface
winds by sunrise. Isolated TSRA across S NM and W TX Saturday
afternoon (21-03Z), left out of this TAF cycle due to low
confidence in direct terminal impacts. More widespread rain
chances Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Upper low off to the west will bring a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the region through the weekend. This will limit
the fire threat as RH`s will remain well above 30 percent this
weekend. 1/2"-1" rainfall amounts look likely for most of the area
by Monday morning. Drier air pushes in early next week with high
temperatures warming back above normal by Wednesday but RH`s look
to remain above 20 percent with winds remaining light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  84  65  80  63 /  20  40  50  80
Sierra Blanca            81  58  73  56 /  40  50  70  70
Las Cruces               80  59  76  58 /  30  40  60  80
Alamogordo               81  58  77  57 /  20  30  60  70
Cloudcroft               60  43  56  41 /  30  20  70  70
Truth or Consequences    79  58  75  57 /  40  40  50  70
Silver City              73  52  72  52 /  70  40  60  60
Deming                   82  58  80  58 /  50  40  60  70
Lordsburg                79  58  78  58 /  70  50  60  50
West El Paso Metro       82  65  77  64 /  20  50  50  80
Dell City                83  60  76  58 /  20  20  50  70
Fort Hancock             86  65  79  62 /  40  50  70  80
Loma Linda               76  58  70  56 /  30  40  60  80
Fabens                   84  63  78  61 /  30  50  50  80
Santa Teresa             80  62  76  61 /  20  50  50  80
White Sands HQ           81  61  76  60 /  30  40  60  80
Jornada Range            79  59  75  57 /  30  30  60  80
Hatch                    82  60  78  59 /  40  30  60  80
Columbus                 82  60  80  60 /  40  50  50  70
Orogrande                79  59  74  57 /  30  30  60  80
Mayhill                  71  49  65  46 /  40  20  70  70
Mescalero                72  47  68  45 /  20  20  70  80
Timberon                 69  47  63  45 /  30  30  70  80
Winston                  72  48  68  47 /  60  50  60  60
Hillsboro                78  55  75  54 /  50  40  60  70
Spaceport                79  58  74  56 /  40  30  60  80
Lake Roberts             73  48  73  47 /  70  40  60  60
Hurley                   75  53  74  53 /  70  40  60  60
Cliff                    79  56  79  55 /  70  40  60  50
Mule Creek               75  52  75  51 /  70  40  40  50
Faywood                  75  55  73  55 /  60  30  60  60
Animas                   80  58  80  58 /  70  60  60  50
Hachita                  79  57  78  57 /  60  60  60  60
Antelope Wells           79  57  79  56 /  60  70  60  50
Cloverdale               73  55  74  54 /  70  80  60  40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion