Trilby, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

825
FXUS62 KTBW 281757
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
157 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The front that moved through the area yesterday has shifted eastward
off the east coast of Florida. High pressure builds in from the
north behind this front and has brought a shift in the winds to a
more north-northeast direction. The 12Z morning sounding is also
showing some drier air with a PWAT of 1.75 inches as well as the
water vapor imagery showing a dry notch over west central and
southwest Florida. This may limit, but not completely eliminate, the
rain chances for this afternoon. Latest HRRR guidance does show
some late afternoon showers and storms developing over the interior
and traversing southwestward toward the west coast of Florida.
Now on to the tropics. The National Hurricane Center is issuing
advisories for Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Depression Nine.
Humberto is located east of the Bahamas and is expected to remain a
major hurricane through the weekend and into next week as it tracks
northwestward. The latest advisory tracks the storm between Bermuda
and the east coast of the U.S. early next week, and does not pose a
threat to west central and southwest Florida. Tropical Depression
Nine is located between Cuba and the Bahamas and is expected to
intensify to a Tropical Storm later today or early tomorrow and will
track to the north-northwest over the Bahamas and then turning
eastward on Tuesday and staying out to sea between the U.S.
coastline and Bermuda. This storm does not pose any direct impacts
for west central and southwest Florida.
Drier air on the west side of Tropical Depression Nine and high
pressure building in from the north will settle into west central
and southwest Florida producing pleasant weather for the first half
of next week with lower rain chances. Moisture increases by Thursday
with slightly higher rain chances expected for the latter part of
the week. Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period,
with mid to upper 80`s to low 90`s expected each afternoon.
Overnight lows will remain in the 60`s and 70`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions and light north-northeast winds around 5-10 knots
will prevail at all terminals through the period. There`s a chance
of showers and storms starting after 20Z, so will hold VCTS at all
terminals through around 01Z. Clearing conditions expected after
02Z and continuing into Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
High pressure will build back over the waters today and into early
next week with lower rain chances each day. Northerly winds around
10 to 15 knots and seas up to 3 feet expected today and Monday. The
gradient further tightens between Tropical Depression Nine east of
Florida and high pressure to the north for Tuesday through Thursday
with cautionary winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet
possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
No fire weather concerns expected through the weekend and into next
week as relative humidity values remain above critical levels and
winds remain below 15 mph. Scattered showers and isolated storms
possible each day through the weekend, then lower rain chances
expected for the first half of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  76  89 /  10  30  10  20
FMY  75  91  75  89 /  10  20  10  20
GIF  75  90  74  89 /  20  30  10  20
SRQ  74  90  75  88 /  20  20  10  20
BKV  71  89  71  88 /  10  40   0  20
SPG  76  89  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion