Turbeville, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

483
FXUS61 KRNK 270915
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
515 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure is moving northeast along a stalled
front in the piedmont of Virginia this morning. This will bring
periods of rain to the region today especially for areas along
and east of the Blue Ridge. The precipitation will be more
showery in nature for areas east of the Blue Ridge. After
today, somewhat drier weather is expected for the remainder of
the weekend with only a slight chance for showers.
Next week, a tropical system will move toward the
southeast coast and could bring more rain to parts of the
region during the week. Much drier cooler weather will be
introduced later in the week by high pressure dropping south
from Canada.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) Flood Watch for parts of the forecast area until Noon.
2) Moderate to heavy showers this morning favoring areas
along/east of the Blue Ridge.
3) Drying out tonight.
A wave of low pressure is moving north along a stalled front
just east of the mountains this morning. Primary lift with this
feature has transitioned from the southern Blue Ridge to areas
northeast of Roanoke. This wave is expected to clear the area by
noon with activity waning for the afternoon. Until then, rain
rates up to 3 inches an hour will be possible. Have placed areas
along and east of the Blue Ridge in a Flood Watch...from the
northern piedmont of NC northward into southside VA and the
foothills of the Blue Ridge VCNTY of the Peaks of Otter and
Amherst.
For the afternoon, while areas east of the mountains begin to
dry, sunshine west of the mountains should result in an axis of
instability along the Appalachian Divide from the NC high
country north to Bluefield and west of Lewisburg. Should see
some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop along this
axis during the afternoon.
All shower activity is expected to wane at sunset with drying
forecast overnight. Temperatures today are expected to range
from the 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Sunday will be the quietest day of the period.
2) Impacts from developing tropical system are possible for
Monday and Tuesday.
Weather is looking benign for Sunday. Deeper moisture is
expected to exit the region as the upper trough is now forecast
to shear out as opposed to remaining a closed low. The stalled
surface front will also get a nudge to the southeast by
developing northerly winds. Without a good forcing mechanism,
Sunday is looking dry. Have lowered pops to just account for
afternoon instability during the peak heating part of the day.
Bottom line, no weather hazards expected for Sunday.
As For Monday and Tuesday, all eyes will be focused on the
southeast Atlantic Coast as a tropical system moves north
paralleling the Florida east coast and begins to threaten the
SC/GA coastline. Most guidance has the system slowing down with
a continued bifurcation of the storm track beyond Monday. As of
this writing, a large number of the ensemble members favor a
right hand turn to the tropical system Tuesday moving it away
from the coast. There are still a few members that bring the
system inland so these cannot be discounted either, or until
such time as they can be discounted or validated.
Regardless of the solutions, we are still expecting a period of
predecessor cloudiness and potential for rain or rain showers.
There should be an expanding cloud field as the tropical storm
evolves and gains latitude, the easterly flow well-out ahead of
the system bringing moisture back into our forecast area from
the East Coast. As such, will continue to entertain showers
both Monday and Tuesday, favoring our eastern CWA for the
highest pops. Heavy rain is possible for our eastern CWA with
potential for 1-2"+ east of the Blue Ridge. A marginal risk for
for excessive rainfall is being highlighted by the Weather
Prediction Center.
Temperatures will be near normal Sunday, due to less cloud
cover. Highs will be in the 70s area-wide. Highs Monday and
Tuesday will be a few degrees lower, with 60s for the mountains
and low 70s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain mild, in the
50s/60s each morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Second half of the week is looking dry.
2) Temperatures trending cooler than normal.
Models are indicating a significant surge of cool Canadian air
into the eastern CONUS for the second half of the week as strong
high pressure over the Northeast US will wedge down east side of
the Appalachians via northerly winds. This will introduce a
period of cooler than normal temperatures with some chilly
overnight lows by the weekend.
Temperatures mid-week will start off with highs 60s/70s and lows
50s/60s...then transition to highs in the 50s/60s and lows
30s/40s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Saturday...
Sub-VFR conditions along and just east of the mountains this
morning with areas of rain. Cigs under 1kft will be common this
morning VCNTY of the Blue Ridge with potential for ridge
obscurations. Improving conditions are expected this afternoon.
Partial clearing tonight will allow for fog and stratus formation
and return to sub-VFR. Improving conditions expected after
14Z/10AM Sunday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Sunday looks dry with return to VFR for the afternoon. Rain may
return for Monday and Tuesday as easterly flow brings moisture
back into the area from the Atlantic Coast. By Monday, a
tropical cyclone will be threatening the southeast Atlantic
Coast. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to the track of a
tropical cyclone beyond Monday, so aviation interests should
keep alert to the forecast along the southeast coast. While
confidence is low in the exact impacts, heavy rainfall could be
possible at times through midweek, which would cause widespread
sub-VFR flight conditions for all terminals.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for VAZ032>035-043>047-058-
     059.
NC...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion