Turkey, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

751
FXUS64 KLUB 181115
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms generally through this
   evening.
- Storm chances return to most of the region Saturday before
   decreasing Sunday into next week.
- Very warm temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday with
   cooler conditions returning thereafter.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A pair of upper lows continue to interact over the northern Great
Plains. The trough axis is currently tracking across the Panhandle
and a line of strong storms is following its trajectory. As
expected, much of this activity has and will remain north of our
area. Latest CAMs currently show the trailing edge of this line
reaching the far SW Panhandle just before sunrise this morning. By
this time, any severe potential should be largely gone and they will
continue to dissipate through the morning. Elsewhere will see a
similar night to the previous several, with mostly clear skies and
lows in the 60s. Zonal flow aloft in the afternoon will bring a
lull in storms and another pleasant day should be in order with
partly cloudy skies, light SSE winds, and highs generally in the
mid 80s.
As the two aforementioned lows merge, the trough will exhibit
more of a negative tilt and a trailing weak shortwave will move
through the area by early evening. There will not be much in the
way of forcing otherwise in the absence of notable jets. Moisture
parameters will not be overly significant either, with dewpoints
struggling to reach 60 and PWAT at or near 1 inch. However winds
will gradually turn to the SE as an associated surface front
tracks NW to SE and a line of scattered non-severe storms may
likewise take on this orientation along the front through the
evening. Broad slight chance PoPs have been retained given the
uncertainty of where storms will precisely initiate, however
greatest chances will exist east of the I-27 corridor. These
should dissipate and/or depart the area around midnight and
another quiet morning will be expected overnight, with near
seasonal lows.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The center of broad upper ridging is set to be firmly in place over
Mexico and the Desert Southwest by Friday, resulting in a dry and
warm end to the work week over West TX. On Saturday, models are in
fairly good agreement that a quick-moving shortwave trough will
track along the top of the ridge, bringing our next chance of
precipitation. It does appear that showers and storms on Saturday
will be isolated to scattered at best given sub-optimial timing of
the upper wave and a relatively dry lower atmosphere, but the setup
still favors maintaining low PoPs area-wide. Sunday and Monday are
currently expected to be mostly dry aside from a very slight chance
of afternoon storms off the Caprock, but will also be the hottest
days of the extended forecast period given the upper ridge will be
at its peak northward extent. Early to mid next week, a majority of
guidance indicates a deep cutoff low will form over the central or
northern plains states, likely lingering there through most of the
rest of the week as a broad omega block attempts to take shape over
the western two thirds of the CONUS. This will place our region
beneath northwesterly or northerly flow aloft for most of next week,
but with all except eastern portions of the Rolling Plains and the
SE TX Panhandle likely to remain dry with the plume of 1"+ PWATs
progged to be confined to our east. Although the week will start out
unseasonably warm, a cold front looks likely to push through at some
point Tue-Wed with temperatures returning to values near average
thereafter.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Continued VFR. SHRA and TS northwest of PVW and CDS are unlikely
to impact the terminals before ending this morning. Another round
of TS is expected later this afternoon and evening along a weak
front - any of which could impact the terminals. Low confidence
in both coverage and timing precludes mention in the TAFs. Expect
light winds through the day outside of any TS.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion