Turtle Creek State Wildlife Management Area, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS63 KMPX 260504
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and mild weather continues through the end of September
  with high temperatures 5-10 degrees above average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Virtually no diurnal Cu are present this afternoon thanks to the
arrival of a drier airmass. Temperatures are also a few degrees
warmer than this time yesterday due to the ample sunshine. A 500mb
ridge will continue to slide east over the central CONUS to end the
week with highs in the upper 70s east to mid 80s across western
Minnesota. Have nudged temperatures up primarily for western
Minnesota both today and tomorrow. A quick moving shortwave and
associated dry frontal passage early Saturday will make for a
slightly cooler day with highs in the low 70s. With dry northwest
flow behind this feature, RH values dip into the 30s in the
afternoon. Fortunately, elevated fire weather conditions are not
anticipated with the strongest wind gusts coinciding with the
morning FROPA. Sunday, southerly flow returns and temperatures creep
back into the upper 70s/low 80s. Tds also increase a bit, but min RH
values are still expected to be in the low to mid 30s.
With ridging building back in Sunday into early next week, warmer
than normal temperatures stick around to end the month. Monday looks
especially warm with 850mb temps around +17 to 20C. Highs along the
Buffalo Ridge could climb into the upper 80s with low to mid 80s
elsewhere and Tds in the low 60s area wide. This looks to be the
warmest day of the period with highs the rest of the week in the mid
70s to low 80s. There still does not appear to be much of a chance
for rain until late next week when the ridge finally begins to break
down.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Patchy mist is possible early this morning across southern
Minnesota & western Wisconsin, but otherwise clear skies are
expected. Winds will shift from northerly tonight to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon with speeds generally
increasing to 7-10 kts.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts becoming NW.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...ETA

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion