University Park, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

157
FXUS62 KTBW 252359
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
759 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
After a very classic summertime setup this afternoon with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms, conditions have quieted down
substantially across the area. There are just a few isolated showers
that have reformed along I-75, but these are shallow - and should
remain so. The 0Z sounding still shows a pretty consistent moisture
column, but there is notable drying in the column when compared to
the 12Z and 18Z soundings today. Mid-level water vapor satellite
imagery is also showing some hints of drier air briefly working into
the area. Thus, this supports the expectation that conditions will
be quiet overnight before the approaching frontal boundary brings
additional convection into the area from the Gulf later tomorrow
afternoon.
It looks like the outflow will probably get ahead of the convection
as it approaches the coast, suggesting the coast from Tampa Bay
southward will probably stay fairly dry. This is due to the
convection orientation aligning with the background flow as it moves
farther south. New convection is likely to develop east of I-75,
however, as the timing coincides with the maximum heating and the
inland push of the sea breeze boundary.
No big changes have been made to the forecast for this evening and
overnight as it remains on track. A few adjustments have been made
to tomorrow`s forecast to capture the aforementioned expected
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The main aviation impact for this TAF cycle will be the possibility
of additional thunderstorms Friday afternoon, generally between 18Z
to 24Z. However, most of the activity approaching from the west
should dissipate before encroaching on the vicinity. Thunderstorms
are then favored to redevelop to the east across the interior later
in the afternoon. The actual likelihood of impacts in the immediate
terminal area are only around 30% at this time - and thus a window
for impacts cannot be completely ruled out and has been mentioned
with this TAF cycle. An additional window for thunderstorms will be
possible on Saturday, before conditions become more uncertain as a
tropical disturbance is forecast to be near or just east of the
Florida peninsula on Sunday and into early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
While isolated showers will continue to pop up overnight, a
disorganized cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to move through
coastal waters late Friday morning and into Friday afternoon. This
will cause locally hazardous winds and seas as the storms move
through. By late day as the storms move inland, winds and seas will
again begin to lay down, with quiet conditions expected to kick off
the weekend. More thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday,
however, as a frontal boundary remains stalled over North Florida.
As AL94 moves near or just east of the Florida peninsula later in
the weekend and into early next week, the southwest flow will
turn northeast and increase to 10 to 15 knots, if not a little
stronger. This will lead to higher waves and seas late in the
weekend and into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  60
FMY  76  91  76  91 /  10  30  10  40
GIF  75  93  74  91 /  20  40  20  60
SRQ  76  89  76  88 /  10  20  20  50
BKV  72  90  71  88 /  10  40  40  70
SPG  78  87  77  86 /  10  30  40  60
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Flannery

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion