Upper Sugarloaf Key Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

745
FXUS62 KKEY 070213
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1013 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Weak lower level troughing across South Florida and the Bahamas is
tucked within the southern periphery of a strong Atlantic surface
high centered off the New England Coast. The trough, along with
earlier day time heating has resulted in nebulous flow across the
Keys this evening. The environment is juiced with this evenings
precipitable water coming in at 2.12 inches. CAPE was ample with
little to no inhibition. Despite the weak surface flow, the
environment has been capable of sustaining pockets of robust
shower with embedded thunderstorm activity. Portions of the island
chain, mostly in the Upper Keys, have been affected off and on.
Troughing will continue to stew with a very moist environment over
the Bahamas through the overnight period. This along with the
more than sufficient CAPE and limited inhibition, in addition to
the current upstream activity seen on radar, should result in
increasing convective coverage in the Keys and surrounding waters.
Will nudge PoPs up to likely for the island chain. Away from
convection, surface winds should firm up slightly out of the
northeast as the effects of day time heating wear off and surface
troughing broadens out. Expect overnight lows in the upper 70s
with dew points in the mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
The combination of broad ridging across the eastern United States
and adjacent Atlantic and a weak trough pushing westward through
South Florida is resulting in light and variable breezes on Keys
waters this evening. Breezes are expected to become prevailing
northeasterly as the trough washes out and the effects of earlier
day time heating dissipate. A wetter than normal pattern remains
across the area and mariners can expect periods of scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms. No changes planned for the
evening marine update.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
With that said, a wetter than normal pattern remains across the
area and may produce periods of sub VFR conditions. Away from
convection, surface winds will be light and variable, becoming
northeast.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076>078.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....AJP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion