Urbana, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

367
FXUS63 KDVN 222326
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
626 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into
  this evening west of a Cedar Rapids to Freeport line.
- Off and on chances of showers and a few thunderstorms continue
  through Thursday before precipitation chances shifts to the
  east Friday into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Morning clouds and fog helped to create an effective warm front
across the area today draping from Cedar Rapids northeastward to
Dubuque. Temperatures north of this boundary are hovering in the
mid 70s while to the south they have warmed into the lower 80s.
Dewpoints across the area are in the 60s. Farther to the
northwest, a cold front stretches from southeast Minnesota into
northwest Iowa before turning west along the South Dakota and
Nebraska. Storms are starting to develop in southwest Wisconsin
and far northeast Iowa. There is mixed layer CAPE across the
area of 1500 to 2000 J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear around 20 knots.
Storms have developed in southwest Wisconsin, southeast
Minnesota, and far northeast Iowa. This is ahead of convective
development in the CAMS which had it delayed until this
evening. For this reason, have decided to spread 20 percent
chance of precipitation south to Highway 30 or along and south
of a Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling/Rock Falls line. After
7 PM this evening, increase chances and slowly spread them
south through 06 UTC before storms are expected to dissipate. A
Marginal or level 1 out of 5 Risk of severe thunderstorms is in
effect this evening northwest of a Cedar Rapids to Freeport
line. There is a small Slight Risk for Buchanan County. Any
severe storms this afternoon into this evening will be isolated
with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. These
storms will be slow moving.
An elongated trough at 500 MB stretches from the Canadian
Maritimes southwest into northern Michigan then west
southwestward into Wyoming and Utah. There are two vorticity
centers in this trough, the first over northern Michigan and
Wisconsin and a second over western Wyoming. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms tonight will be associated with the northern
energy and deep convergence along the cold front that is
forecast to move southeastward and be bear the Mississippi River
at 12 UTC Tuesday. The second is forecast to become stretched
out and bring chances for showers and storms to the area along
and south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line and bring a chance
for showers and storms to the area mainly south of Interstate
80. Any rainfall amounts will be light so no relief for the
dryness since the beginning of August.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The long-term period remains active to start, but a pattern shift by
the end of the work week will bring quiet and more pleasant
conditions to the area.
Wednesday and Thursday: the aforementioned upper trough will slowly
pivot across the central CONUS, making slow progress eastward, so we
will continue to see a few more of these embedded shortwaves
sweeping through the area. Low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers
and isolated storms will continue to linger over the area, most
likely across our southeast. A slight cooldown is expected these
days, with highs lowering to the lower 70s area-wide.
Friday into the upcoming weekend: big changes come during this time
frame as upper-level ridging over the western CONUS develops and
kicks out the persistent trough to the east. The result will be dry
conditions for our region with temperatures increasing to slightly
above normal (upper 70s to lower 80s), so for those that have
outdoor plans this weekend, weather is looking quite pleasant! In
fact, the global models and LREF cluster analysis indicate a rex
block developing over the western US, which could persist into the
early part of next week. For us, that would mean a period of dry
conditions continuing beyond the weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered showers and storms are possible near DBQ and CID
tonight with low confidence on areal coverage (20-40%) with the
activity drifting in from the northwest. Even lower confidence
the showers/storms reach areas south of I-80 so did not mention
in the MLI or BRL TAFs. Patchy shallow MVFR fog is possible
late tonight (area-wide) and a period of IFR ceilings are
possible at DBQ Tuesday AM.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins/Schultz
AVIATION...Uttech

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion