Utida, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

729
FXUS65 KSLC 052148
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
348 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A trailing shortwave associated with yesterdays Pacific
system is currently clipping northern UT and SW WY resulting in
light scattered showers. While cooler temperatures persist today and
tomorrow, temperatures look to warm up through the week with dry
conditions developing alongside. On Thursday, tropical moisture
pushes north into the forecast area transitioning us to a wet
pattern for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
* Scattered light showers are expected to continue across far
  northern UT, SW WY, and the Uintas this afternoon and will subside
  following sunset.
* Southwest flow aloft persists as ridging builds over the Southern
  Plains throughout the week. As a result, dry conditions with a
  warm up will occur through the week.
* Tropical moisture from TS Priscilla, and perhaps moisture from
  Hurricane Octave will phase into an incoming trough. This will
  shift the forecast area back into a wetter, and perhaps cooler
  pattern as we enter the weekend.
A trailing shortwave associated with the Pacific system that passed
through the area this weekend will continue to spark scattered
showers across northern UT, SW WY, and the Uintas this afternoon.
Satellite water vapor imagery supports this as dry air is currently
filling in behind a stream of midlevel moisture with this shortwave
providing just enough ascent with ample moisture in place to give us
one more round of showers. This activity is expected to gradually
subside following sunset this evening as the shortwave clears the
area further east into WY.
By tomorrow, a rex block is expected to develop off the western U.S.
coastline as a low develops just off the southern CA coast with
ridging to its north. At the same time, ridging will begin to
develop over the Southern Plains, which will serve to keep the
aforementioned low in place. As a result, dry and benign conditions
are expected to develop across the forecast area with a warming
trend through late Thursday to early Friday. Height rises across the
forecast area will be the driving factor behind this warm up as the
ridge across the Southern Plains gradually retrogresses toward the
southwestern U.S. through Friday.
As we draw closer to the end of the workweek, a longwave trough will
dive south down the Canadian west coast and meander just off the
coast of the Pacific NW. Through the weekend, the aforementioned
ridge to our south will gradually weaken making way for this trough
to push inland. While this is occurring, tropical moisture from TS
Priscilla and perhaps even Hurricane Octave will phase into the
trough, making its way up to the forecast area. Ensemble guidance
appears to favor this solution more than previous forecasts, though
timing still appears uncertain as to when the trough will push
inland. As such, precipitation totals generally have a wide spread
amongst ensemble guidance at this time. Regardless of amounts, it
does appear that precipitation will return to the forecast area in
some capacity as early as Friday. It does also appear that some
areas across the forecast area could see some impressive rainfall
amounts, though locations are difficult to iron out at this time
given the complexity of the pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Dry conditions will continue with skies clearing
overnight. Light northerly winds will transition to light southerly
winds overnight.
.Rest of Utah and Southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Isolated showers across
the far northern airspace will diminish this evening with skies
clearing out overnight. Winds will be light and variable.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...This past weekends storm system is currently passing
through the area with associated showers ongoing across northern UT
and the Uintas. By this evening, the activity will subside making
way for a dry period with warming temperatures through Thursday
afternoon. Moisture will begin pushing in from the south beginning
as early as Thursday afternoon into Friday with increasing
humidities and chances for rain returning to the forecast as a
result.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion