Valentine, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

320
FXUS64 KMAF 121122
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
- This weekend will feature near normal temperatures and low to
  moderate (20-60%) rain chances. Best (40-60%) rain chances will
  be over southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain in West
  Texas Saturday afternoon and evening.
- Near normal temperatures remain through the middle of next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
High pressure remains over central Texas this morning with an
upper level low near the Great Basin in the western U.S. The high
over Texas will exert a greater influence over our weather today keeping
temps unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Moisture circulating around the high should remain west of the CWA
and any rain showers should be west of the Guadalupe Mountains.
The low to the west moves east tomorrow, increasing moisture in
the western half of the forecast area and increasing rain chances
significantly (30-60%) for southeastern New Mexico south to the
Big Bend.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
The upper low moves into the central Great Plains Saturday night
while weakening and moving away to the northeast. This pushes the
convection into the northwestern Permian Basin, though coverage
diminishes as the supporting upper dynamics get further away from
the area. A very broad and flat ridge then moves into West Texas
Sunday behind the departing trough. The weak ridge allows for mid
and upper level moisture to remain and there will be a slight
chance for showers and storms. Any activity should be high based
and accumulations would be light if any.
Upper moisture remains Monday and there may be enough instability
in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River for isolated
showers to develop. Other areas farther east should see an
afternoon altocumulus field develop. This scenario should repeat
each day next week with weak high pressure preventing showers from
developing but allowing for scattered afternoon clouds.
Temperatures should remain near to slightly above normal with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Southeasterly (easterly at
PEQ) winds are expected to become gusty around 20 to 25kts by mid-
morning/early afternoon Friday. Winds should weaken to around 10kts
at most sites (except KFST) between 06Z and 09Z Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 91  67  86  65 /   0  10  60  50
Dryden                   91  70  91  71 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            91  68  89  68 /   0   0  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           84  64  79  62 /   0  10  60  50
Hobbs                    88  64  84  64 /   0   0  50  50
Marfa                    85  59  81  59 /   0  10  40  30
Midland Intl Airport     92  68  90  70 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                   90  68  88  69 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                     91  68  88  68 /   0   0  40  40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...55

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion