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Vida, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

836
FXUS66 KPQR 300445 CCA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 944 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...Updated aviation discussion...

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.SYNOPSIS...A fall like weather pattern is expected to continue through much of the week as we transition from September into October. Expect periods of rain through at least Thursday as a series of fronts brings unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. Breezy southerly winds expected on Tuesday, followed by rain showers and chances for thunderstorms as a low pressure system remains offshore. Dry weather likely returns for the weekend while temperatures remain seasonably cool.

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.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific front moving across the region this afternoon is bringing a round of light rain across much of the area. Many coastal locations have seen total rainfall amounts of around 0.40-0.80 inch thus far, while most inland locations will likely see around 0.10 to 0.25 inch of rain through this evening. Expect conditions to turn dry again tonight through at least Tuesday morning as the shortwave upper trough lifts east of the Cascades and surface winds turn offshore. Temperatures will be running near to slightly below normal through most of the week with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s inland.

A more potent frontal system is expected to push another round of rain onshore by Tuesday afternoon along with breezy southerly winds through the evening. Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a low pressures system developing near 140W/48N, which is expected to strengthen to around 977mb overnight. Fortunately, there is strong ensemble agreement that the surface low remains well offshore and to the north, potentially nearing Vancouver Island late Wednesday or Thursday, as it gradually weakens. There is still some timing uncertainty with the front on Tuesday, but generally expect an initial band of more moderate rain to push across the area late Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Expect southerly wind gusts along the coast, especially beaches and headlands, approaching 40-50 mph, with just a 10-20% chance of high wind gusts exceeding 58 mph as an occluding cold front approaches the coast. Inland areas will mainly see wind gusts of 30 mph or less. While guidance suggests there is only a 5-25% chance of wind gusts up to 40 mph, with leaves still on the trees, there is a small chance for a few broken tree limbs or garbage cans falling over through Tue night.

Behind the initial frontal band, precipitation turns showery through at least Thursday as the low pressure system remains offshore. With the cooler air aloft and proximity to low pressure, will see increasing chances for a few showers to grow deep enough to produce some thunder. The main chances (15-25%) for thunderstorms likely remains along the coast on Tuesday, before spreading inland with around a 20% chance of thunder Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds remain somewhat elevated through Wednesday with gusts generally up to 35 mph along the coast and 25 mph inland. Total rainfall amounts will largely be dependent on where showers set up, but generally expect around 0.25-0.50 inch of rain inland, and up to 1.5 inch along the coast and higher terrain through Thu night.

By Friday, most ensemble members are showing drier weather returning into the weekend. WPC 500 mb cluster analysis shows relatively good agreement of the upper low dropping into northern California late Friday. /Hartsock

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.AVIATION...Shower activity has ended across most of northwest Oregon as the front has progressed further east. Tonight, expect mostly dry conditions with predominately low-end VFR CIGs across most terminals (except KONP) as the region enters a brief lull before the next frontal system. Winds will weaken overnight and come out of the south/southeast, generally remaining under 10 kt. The next warm front arrives Tuesday morning, with rain beginning along the coast by 15-18z Tue and across the Willamette Valley by 18-21z Tue. The trailing cold front arrives Tuesday afternoon, with moderate to high confidence (60-80% chance) in a return of MVFR CIGs along the coast after 21z Tue. For inland locations, there is lower confidence (20-30% chance) for MVFR CIGs Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds increase across the area beginning 15-18z Tue, with gusts peaking in the afternoon around 35-40 kt along the coast and 25-30 kt inland.

Widespread rain transitions to showers behind the front after 00z Wed, with a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms along the coast. Any passing thunderstorms can bring gusty, erratic winds and heavy rain which could briefly reduce visibility to IFR/MVFR thresholds.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately low-end VFR conditions with a 15- 30% chance for MVFR CIGs through 18z Tue. Winds turn more east- southeasterly tonight, around 4-6 kt. Rain returns after 18-21z Tue with the next front, with winds turning southerly and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. -Alviz

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.MARINE...An initial cold front has moved onshore this afternoon, however southerly winds of 8-15 kt continue to support seas of 8-11 ft. While winds ease further through this evening, seas may not fall below 10 ft, and the Small Craft Advisory has therefore been extended through tonight ahead of the next system.

As a surface low deepens west of Vancouver Island over by Tuesday afternoon and another, more potent frontal boundary approaches the coast, southerly winds will increase dramatically tonight through Tuesday. At their peak through Tuesday afternoon, speeds will reach 30-40 kt with gusts to 45 kt across the waters. Isolated storm-force gusts of 48 kt or more cannot be ruled out, but are not expected to be persistent or widespread. In response, seas will also build quickly to 15-18 ft by Tuesday afternoon, although chances for 20 ft or greater seas have fallen to less than 5%. While winds are expected to fall below gale-force on Tuesday night, seas elevated above 10-15 ft are expected to linger through much of Thursday. Additional Small Craft Advisories therefore remain in place beginning late this evening until Gale Warnings come into effect by early Tuesday morning through late Tuesday evening. Hazardous Seas Watches have been issued for lingering elevated seas midweek.

Behind the departing front, winds are expected to steadily weaken below 15 kt by Thursday evening while seas similarly ease to 6-8 ft by Friday. As the deep low fills and moves inland by this weekend, it will likely be replaced by building surface high pressure over the northeastern Pacific which will see winds return to seasonable northerly flow. -Picard

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.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210-251>253.

Gale Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210- 251>253.

Hazardous Seas Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271>273.

Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271>273.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night for PZZ271>273. &&

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NWS PQR Office Area Forecast Discussion

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