004 FXUS63 KSGF 101849 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 149 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20% chance of showers and storms mainly south and west of Springfield late this afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through at least this weekend. Some record highs may be approached.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Water vapor and upper level analysis show a closed low over CA with an upper ridge axis across the plains. A thunderstorm complex in the plains last night decayed over eastern KS this morning with a few remnant showers remaining east of ICT. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s so far this afternoon with dew points in the mid to upper 50s.

CAMS have backed off quite a bit from earlier runs on convection in the west this afternoon and evening, but a few members still bring in some weaker convection, mainly west of Springfield late this afternoon and evening. Have trimmed back pops a bit to basically 30% or less for the western CWA. Overnight lows should be warmer in the low to mid 60s for most locations.

On Thursday, we see the upper ridge start to build further north and east into the forecast area. Temperatures should be a bit warmer in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Temperatures are expected to get hot Friday into much of next week, with well above normal temperatures through the forecast period. In fact several record highs will be approached from Friday through Tuesday(see climate section for those records).

There is pretty high confidence in the temperature forecast through the period with several reasons supporting this:

1) Ensemble means are suggesting 850mb temps in the upper teens to low 20s C. A local study we`ve conducted here correlate with temperatures in the 92 to 98 degree range for 850mb temperatures above 19 deg C and a mostly clear sky. This range is the 25th-75th percentile range.

2) ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for MaxT show a 90th to 95th percentile for temperatures late this week into early next week for the area.

3) NBM 25th-75th percentile range for temperatures are only a few degrees within one another suggesting a higher confidence forecast.

With upper ridge axis in place over the area and upper energy remaining away from the CWA, most precipitation chances would have to be pulse in nature. While PW values increase slightly over the area, higher moisture will remain to our east. For this reason, we are keeping pops below 15% in the long term.

The 8 to 14 day outlook continues trend of continuing the above normal temperatures. Ensemble data suggest a 5 to 8 degree above normal range with normal highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for this time of year.

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the 18z TAFS, still have some showers west of the CWA from an MCS which has decayed. A few convective allowing models show this activity still making it into western MO so will continue with a prob30 this afternoon and early evening at JLN. Outside of that, we are expecting a light southerly wind(10kts or less) and VFR conditions.

.CLIMATE... Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within 5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 11: KSGF: 96/2000 KUNO: 96/1953

September 12: KSGF: 97/1939 KJLN: 97/1956 KVIH: 98/1897 KUNO: 96/1980

September 13: KSGF: 99/2011 KVIH: 96/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 14: KSGF: 102/1893 KUNO: 99/1954

September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KVIH: 97/1897 KUNO: 98/1954

September 16: KSGF: 95/2019 KVIH: 96/1954

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Lindenberg

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion