929 FXUS62 KTAE 110123 AFDTAEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 923 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Minor tweaks to temperatures for the next few hours, but overall no significant changes to the forecast.
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.NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
No significant weather concerns today and tonight. High pressure centered near Hudson`s Bay extends southward into the eastern CONUS with the ridge axis west of the region locking in low to mid- level northeast flow. This inhibit the seabreeze, and along with anomalously low PWAT, will ensure dry weather. Highs in the mid to upper 80s today and upper 80s to near 90F on Thursday. Meanwhile, winds are expected to decouple tonight, so lows should drop a bit below guidance, ranging from some upper 50s in the more sheltered locals with low to mid-60s elsewhere. The inverted-v/caret profile on model soundings today and tomorrow, along with turbulent mixing, will promote turbulent mixing with dew points expected to fall several degrees below guidance each afternoon and evening; This translates to dew points in the 50s away from the Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening and again Thursday afternoon and evening, so a very comfortable air mass.
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.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Omega blocking pattern sets up through early next week featuring ridging through the central US and and troughing on either side. In the low levels, northeasterly winds will persist with high pressure in the northeast and ridging stretching down the Appalachians. PWATs will be closer to an inch with virtually dry conditions forecast through the period. High temperatures are expected to generally remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. Dry conditions will also keep heat indices pretty close to the ambient temperatures as well. Low temperatures are forecast in the 60s.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions prevail with light NE winds.
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.MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
High pressure builds into the northern Gulf this period as a stationary boundary finally moves off the Florida east coast by the weekend. Primarily northeasterly winds on the south side of the ridging will promote overnight easterly wind surges into the Gulf with periods of cautionary conditions possible. Minimal chances for showers are expected through the middle of next week.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
A dry period of weather is on tap until at least the middle of next week. Moderate northeast transport winds on Thursday with mixing heights between 5,000 and 6,000 feet will lead to pockets of high dispersion during the afternoon. Similar transport winds but higher mixing heights on Friday would lead to the potential for widespread high dispersions during the afternoon. Meanwhile, RH values bottom out in the 30s both Thursday and Friday afternoons with pockets of RH in the upper 20s possible. On Friday, there is a low probability of elevated fire weather concerns northwest of the Flint River in GA into the SE AL Wiregrass if RH values fall into the mid-20s.
Looking ahead, the prolonged period of dry conditions and elevated winds may lead to an increasing potential for elevated fire weather concerns this weekend.
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.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
No flooding is expected this week.
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.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 89 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 86 60 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 86 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 89 66 89 66 / 10 0 10 0 Apalachicola 87 69 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
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.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ108-115.
GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. &&
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NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Young MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...Scholl
NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion