White Oak, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

461
FXUS62 KJAX 210624
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
223 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Breezy with a High Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches
- Inland Fog this Morning
- Minor Tidal Flooding Potential St. Johns River Basin this Week
- Isolated Afternoon & Evening TStorms Monday & Tuesday
- Inland Heat Index near 100 degrees Mid-Week
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Gustier ENE winds today with the approach and passage of a weak
backdoor front (moving northeast to southwest), with a few
coastal showers still possible mainly between St. Augustine to
Flagler Beach (rain chances < 20%). Mostly dry conditions prevail
inland and northward across southeast Georgia. Coastal gusts
approach 30 mph this afternoon with inland gusts near 20 mph.
Highs will continue to warm above normal well inland into the
lower 90s while onshore flow keeps coastal locations more mild
topping out in the mid 80s. Peak heat index values today range
from near 90 at the coast to 90-95 degrees west of the Highway 301
corridor.
Tonight, coastal rain chances increase through the night as the
low level inverted coastal trough well offshore begins to break
down and collapse, with an increase in low level moisture.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer with increased cloud cover
tonight with lows in the mid 60s well inland to lower 70s toward
the Atlantic coast. Some inland fog/log stratus possible, but
confidence not high enough to include in the forecast with
increasing high cirrus limiting radiational cooling conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A frontal boundary to the south will begin to lift northward Monday
as high pressure wedging down the east coast from the NNE weakens
and retreats eastward into the north Atlantic waters east of Nova
Scotia. Mostly cloudy skies arrive by the afternoon from increasing
high level clouds with scattered coastal showers moving onshore in
the east northeasterly flow between weakening high to the northeast
and weak coastal troughing off the SE US coastline in the morning
hours with isolated to scattered T`storms expanding inland from the
progressive Atlantic seabreeze/onshore flow regime. Onshore winds
will be lighter due to a weaker gradient about 10-15 mph along the
immediate coast becoming 5-10 mph inland. Highs will be a little
less Monday due to more clouds with upper 80s inland and the mid
80s coast.
Monday night, skies will become partly cloudy overnight as high
level clouds decrease with lows ranging from the mid 60s across
inland SE GA and the low 70s along the coast.
Tuesday, a lifting shortwave from the eastern Gulf will shift NE
across the area during the first half of the day and then exit to
the region the 2nd half of the day. This will lead to overall
decreasing clouds in the afternoon and isolated to scattered
showers and T`storms mainly over eastern zones to the coast as
above average moisture levels filter north over the eastern half
of the area from the south as a frontal boundary extends over the
NE FL waters from east central FL. Light easterly winds will
prevail as weak high pressure shift over the open western Atlantic
waters to the Northeast. Highs will rise into the low 90s inland
to the upper 80s along I-95 and the mid 80s at the coast.
Tuesday night, weak high pressure forming over the area will support
mostly clear skies and near clam winds with fog potentially forming
after midnight. Lows will fall into the upper 60s inland to the low
70s at the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Wednesday, weak ridging will temporarily shift over the region in
the wake of the exiting shortwave trough with drier air as a weak
surface high forms over the FL peninsula. The slightly drier than
average airmass will limit coverage of isolated showers/T`storms
north central FL and the southern St Johns river basin. Increased
sunshine should allow highs to reach the low to mid 90s inland, but
only the upper 80s near the coast as the Atlantic seabreeze keeps
coastal areas cooler.
Thursday, a deepening mid to upper level closed low will move south
from the upper Midwest into the Ozark region. Low level flow will
turn from northerly to southwesterly with increasing moisture
levels that will support isolated to scattered diurnal
showers/T`storms across the area as Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes
work inland in the afternoon. Highs will continue to rise to the
low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s along the coast.
Friday, the closed mid to upper level low will shift ESE into the
upper OH and TN valleys. Southwest flow aloft will strengthen over
the area. Organized showers and T`storms along a line will move east
through the deep south/Gulf coast ahead of a cold front trailing a
surface low over the OH river valley.Locally, southwest winds will
favor pushing the Gulf seabreeze further inland with scattered to
numerous diurnal showers and T`storms developing well ahead of the
front entering southern GA Friday night. Increasing clouds ahead
of the front will induce slightly cooler highs in the upper 80s
along the coast and for much of SE GA while lower 90s become more
favored over NE FL areas where decreased cloud cover is expected.
Saturday, global models show some variation in the position of the
the closed low aloft to start next weekend, possibly stalling near
the Appalachian region with the surface cold front in turn
stalling as it works into our area. However, the front`s position
may vary depending on where exactly the mid to upper level low
stalls. Therefore, have at least scattered showers and T`storms
for most of the area for now. Highs will generally be in the upper
80s with pockets of low 90s over locations most likely ahead of
the front over NE FL and north central FL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
IFR to LIFR restrictions at VQQ through 12z for shallow ground fog
with MVFR potential at GNV where TEMPO was advertised. NNE winds
increase after 12z with gusts 20-25 kts at coastal terminals by
16z with increasing low level cumulus. Potential for brief MVFR
restrictions through the day at the coast, but confidence not
high enough to indicate in prevailing. Afternoon shower potential
(rain chances < 20%) increases at SGJ after 18z, but again with
low chances kept VCSH out of the forecast for now. Winds relax
into the evening with increasing coastal shower rain chances late
tonight, after 06z, and PROB30s may need to be included in later
TAF packages.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Northeast winds strengthen to Caution levels today between
strengthening high pressure northeast of the local waters and a
coastal trough offshore. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Atlantic waters today,
shifting northward and expanding in coverage across Georgia Atlantic
waters tonight. Monday and Tuesday, winds begin to weaken as high
pressure settles southward down the U.S. eastern seaboard and the
coastal trough weakens through the end of the week.
Rip Currents: The high rip current risk was extended through
Tuesday for northeast Florida beaches under persistent ENE winds,
with a moderate rip current risk for southeast Georgia beaches
expected today and likely again Monday. Breaker heights will build
today to 3-4 ft along northeast Florida beaches, peaking Monday
in the 3-5 ft range along northeast Florida beaches, below high
surf advisory criterion.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Forecast guidance continues to trend lower with peak tidal
flooding crests early this week, with now only the St. Johns River
basin south of downtown Jacksonville toward Welaka reaching
`action` stage around high tides Monday through Thursday. Peak
inundation values are generally < 1.25 ft MHHW, which is below
minor tidal flooding thresholds (generally less than 1.5 ft MHHW
for the St. Johns River basin) and a coastal flood advisory is not
expected at this time based on recent observations and forecast
trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  65  88  67 /   0   0  20   0
SSI  84  70  83  73 /  10  20  30  10
JAX  89  69  87  70 /   0  20  40  10
SGJ  87  73  86  73 /  10  20  40  20
GNV  93  65  91  69 /  10   0  20  10
OCF  92  70  90  71 /  10   0  30  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion