602 FXUS64 KLIX 080450 AFDLIXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Deep troughing across the eastern CONUS will keep the local area under generally northwest flow aloft. Dry high pressure will continue to build into the area tonight. The drier air will allow more efficient radiational cooling, and we should wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 60s across northern areas and lower 70s across southern areas. That being said, it could be the coolest morning since early June in some areas. Monday will feel amazing, with afternoon temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the 50s.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer on Tuesday (both lows and highs) and dewpoints will rise back into the lower 70s by Tuesday afternoon as the center of the surface high lifts northeastward. Moisture will increase a bit across coastal areas in response to a weak inverted trough in the northern Gulf. While most showers and storms will remain over the coastal waters, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms could move into coastal areas and will continue to carry a 20-40% chance of showers and storms generally southeast of a line from Pierre Part to Franklinton, with higher POPs across lower Plaquemines Parish.
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.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
No substantial changes to the upper pattern are expected through the work week, with the overall longwave trough remaining roughly in place across the eastern CONUS and surface high pressure centered generally northeast of the local area.
There will be some small fluctuations in temperature and dewpoint throughout the long term, but generally speaking, conditions will remain fairly consistent with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, highs mostly in the low 90s, and no significant rain chances to speak of. Best rain chances will be across coastal SE LA, but should remain mostly below 30% each day.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure builds into the area in the wake of a weak cold front. Winds will generally be N-NE at 10 kts or lower, except at MSY and NEW where winds will be a little stronger coming off the lake.
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.MARINE... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Winds across the coastal waters will remain elevated through mid day Monday as high pressure continues to build into the area. The gradient will begin to relax Monday afternoon with winds and waves responding accordingly. Additional periods of moderate easterly winds will be possible through the week. An inverted trough moving through the northern Gulf will result in unsettled weather with numerous showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The unsettled weather will continue into Wednesday, though showers and storms will become more scattered. Beyond Wednesday the pattern should become more benign with only isolated showers and storms mainly across the outer waters.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 60 84 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 64 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 63 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 30 MSY 71 88 73 89 / 0 0 0 30 GPT 65 88 69 87 / 0 0 10 30 PQL 63 89 68 88 / 0 0 10 30
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.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ536-538-555- 557-575-577.
MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ538-555-557- 575-577.
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SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM....DM AVIATION...DM MARINE...DM
NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion