Wingate, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

698
FXUS64 KSJT 181901
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
201 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, but near-normal temperatures continue today.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily Sunday
  through Tuesday.
- After above normal temperatures Friday through Monday,
  temperatures should be at least a little cooler Tuesday into
  Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A weak boundary has moved into the Big Country region early this
afternoon, with a more distinct frontal boundary farther north.
The boundary in the Big Country could result in a few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of the
Interstate 20 boundary this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
temperatures will drop into the mid and upper 60s tonight, with
another warm day Friday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid
90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
This weekend into Monday, an upper level high will be centered over
Mexico, and our area will have northwest flow aloft. With this
setup, a few embedded disturbances could move over our area and
bring a possibility of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. At this time, we have low (20-30) PoPs in the
northern half of the Big Country Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night, and low to medium (20-40) PoPs in northern (Big Country) and
east-central (Heartland) Counties Sunday afternoon into early Sunday
night. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible in
our area Monday with our eastern counties more favored. Expect
increased and somewhat breezy south winds over the weekend with an
increased pressure gradient and a lee surface trough to our west.
Temperatures will be trending hotter this weekend as 850mb thermal
ridge expands east into our area. The hottest days should be Sunday
and Monday when highs are expected to be in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees in the Big Country and Concho Valley.
Forecast uncertainty increases considerably in the Tuesday to
Thursday time frame next week. This is largely with the evolution of
the upper level pattern, and the track/placement of an upper low.
The operational medium range models are in poor agreement with each
other and with their respective ensembles. Overall, an upper trough
is progged to drop southeast into the Plains and develop a closed
low, which then tracks into the Midwest. It does look like the upper
low should be far enough away from our area to result in lower rain
chances, and an associated cold front should be weaker as it moves
south into our area on Tuesday. A blended model solution has chances
for showers and thunderstorms in our area Tuesday, with only a
slight chance of showers/storms in our eastern and southeastern
counties into Wednesday. Still have temperatures trending cooler
Tuesday into Wednesday with highs back in the mid 80s to lower 90s
Tuesday, and mid 80s to around 90 Wednesday. Temperatures could be
hotter than this however, especially if the front ends up stalling
to the north of our area. Expect additional changes and adjustments
to the forecast with subsequent model data in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all sites,
although a few SHRA or TSRA could develop near the KABI site.
However, coverage is not expected to be enough for a mention at
the site. South to southeast winds will generally persist at 5 to
10 knots, with a few readings near 15 knots this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  93  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
San Angelo  66  92  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
Junction    65  92  66  92 /   0  10   0   0
Brownwood   68  92  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
Sweetwater  67  92  70  94 /   0  10   0  10
Ozona       65  90  66  90 /   0  10   0  10
Brady       68  90  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion