Wisner, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

478
FXUS63 KOAX 291851
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
151 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures will continue through the work
  week, with highs generally in the 80s.
- Dry conditions are expected to persist through the work week.
- A pattern shift is expected this weekend, bringing the return
  of precipitation chances (15-30%) and gradually cooling
  temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Water vapor imagery this afternoon displays a broad mid- to upper-
level ridge over the east-central CONUS with troughing pushing
onshore over the Pacific Northwest. This leaves the region in
predominately southerly flow aloft. At the surface, a broad region
of high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes region/Ontario
overspreads much of eastern NE and southwest IA, bringing another
calm, mostly clear afternoon. Highs this afternoon are expected to
peak in the upper 80s, approximately 15 degrees above the
climatological average for the end of September.
Tonight into Tuesday, a weak wave pushing into the central Plains
will bring increasing mid- to high-level cloud cover. Henceforth,
highs are expected to take a small dip into the low 80s on Tuesday.
CAM guidance continues to bring splotchy simulated reflectivity with
the wave feature late Tuesday morning through the afternoon,
however, model soundings indicate a moderately dry sub-cloud layer.
Therefore, precipitation reaching the ground will be limited. Virga
or spotty sprinkles appear to be the more likely scenario. PoPs
current remain under 15%.
Through the remainder of the work week, above average
temperatures will continue with highs generally in the upper
80s, though a few spots may hit the low 90s. Overnight lows are
expected in the upper 50s to low 60s.
A pattern shift will come this weekend as a cutoff low tracks across
the Four Corners region and into the central Plains, helping to
break down the ridge in place and bring troughing back to the area.
In response, moisture transport will ramp up and bring
precipitation chances back to the area. PoPs return early
Saturday and continue through the weekend with periodic 15-30%
chances. Temperatures will gradually decrease through the
weekend into the start of next week, with high temperatures in
the low 80s Saturday and Sunday and the 70s likely by next
Monday. The cool down may be short lived as long range guidance
helps to bring another ridge into the area later next week. This
is reflected in the CPC`s outlook, with temperatures leaning
above average in the 6-10 day (Valid Oct 4-8), 8-14 day (Valid
Oct 6-12), and week 3-4 outlook (Valid Oct 11-24).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Southerly winds will continue at 8-12 kts with a few
gusts up to 18 kts at KOFK possible this afternoon. Mid- to
upper-level (FL220-250) cloud cover will increase through the
afternoon and evening.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Wood

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion