Wortham, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

737
FXUS64 KLIX 011826
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
126 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Rain and storm chances slowly increase tomorrow and Friday
   with better chances this weekend.
- Winds and seas will increase Thursday through this weekend
   leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions.
- Minor coastal flooding along east facing showers of southeast
   LA, including inside the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county
   expected Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The main story in the short term will be the slow development of a
broad and weak low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico through
Friday night. This weak area of low pressure will result in a
tighter pressure gradient over the northern Gulf starting on
Thursday and continuing through Friday night. This increasing
pressure gradient will allow for a sustained east wind of 10 to
15 mph to develop tomorrow and continue through remainder of the
period. These sustained east winds will allow water to gradually
pile up on east facing shores, and some minor coastal flooding
issues could occur during high tide cycles both Thursday and
Friday night. At most, tidal flooding of 1 to 2 feet above ground
level will occur in the most impacted locations, and a coastal
flood advisory will likely be issued tomorrow for portions of the
forecast area.
Beyond the coastal flooding concerns, the development of the low
will also provide somewhat higher rain chances to the area due to
both a broad region of increased lift overspreading the area and
increased moisture feeding in from the south and east. However,
there will be a very sharp moisture gradient across the region.
Higher moisture content and PWATS of around the 75th percentile
for this time of year are likely in coastal Louisiana both
tomorrow and Friday, but PWATS will remain near the 25th
percentile for locations along and north of the I-12 corridor in
Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. As a result, PoP
values will range from 30 to 50 percent south of I-10 in Southeast
Louisiana to less than 10 percent in Southwest Mississippi and
the Florida Parishes. The increase in moisture and cloud
development will also help to moderate temperatures back to more
average levels for this time of year by Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
As the low slowly pushes to the north on Saturday and Sunday,
deepening moisture across the forecast area will lead to
increasing rain chances further inland each day. Saturday will see
a continued moisture gradient across the area with PWATS near the
25th percentile in Southwest Mississippi persisting. However,
PWATS will increase to the 75th percentile on the Southshore and
the 50th percentile on the I-12 corridor. This will support
isolated to scattered convective activity in these areas Saturday
afternoon. Closer to the coast, heavier rainfall will become a
concern as PWATS rise into the 90th percentile for this time of
year and PoP values will rise to between 50 and 70 percent. The
NBM probability of one inch of rainfall or greater is around 30
percent for Saturday along the coast. This is high enough to
warrant some heavy rainfall concerns. Temperatures will remain
near average north of I-12, but will be below average, in the
lower 80s, on the Southshore and coast of Louisiana due to the
clouds and rainfall expected. Minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2
feet above ground will also persist during high tide cycles on
east facing shores.
Sunday will be the most unsettled day of the long term period as
the low pulls inland across the region. The combination of
increased forcing associated with the low and a pool of tropical
moisture overspreading the area will support rain chances of 40 to
70 percent across the entire forecast area. The highest rain
chances will remain along and south of the I-10/12 corridor where
PWATS are forecast to rise to around the max daily value for this
time of year. Heavy rainfall will also be an issue on Sunday and
this is supported by continued NBM rainfall probabilities of
around 30 percent for one inch or more of total rainfall for
locations south of I-10. This would include the Southshore and
Mississippi Coast. Given the extensive cloud cover and rainfall in
the area, temperatures will be below average across the area with
readings only peaking in the lower 80s.
Monday and Tuesday will see lower overall rain chances and a
return to more average temperatures for early October as the low
weakens and dissipates over the Deep South and a broad upper level
high pressure system becomes more dominant. However, lingering
moisture in the low to mid-levels of the atmosphere will keep a
diurnally induced convective threat in place both days. PWATS will
decline from the high levels seen on Sunday, but will only fall to
between the 50th and 75th percentile for Monday and Tuesday. As
temperatures warm into the mid 80s, the convective temperature
will be achieved each day, and this will allow for scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity to fire up in the afternoon
hours. Overall, more of a Summer like pattern than what is
typically seen this time of year to start off the workweek. The
wind field will also turn calmer, and the threat of coastal
flooding will come to an end by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
No significant concerns for aviators at any of the terminals as
conditions remain VFR through tomorrow afternoon. Winds will
remain below 10 knots and will generally be from the east.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A slowly deepening low pressure system in the northern Gulf will
lead to rougher conditions across the coastal waters for the next
few days. As the low deepens, the pressure gradient will increase
over the coastal waters, and this will allow for an easterly wind
of 20 to 25 knots to develop by tomorrow afternoon. These winds
will persist through Sunday as the low gradually pulls north
toward the Gulf Coast. A fairly long fetch across the eastern Gulf
will allow produce a decent swell, and this will combine with the
wind waves to produce higher seas of up to 9 feet over the open
Gulf waters. The low is expected to push inland and weaken early
next week, and a high will build in behind the low by the middle
of next week. Winds and seas will gradually decrease as the low
weakens and the ridge of high pressure becomes more dominant. Due
to the rough conditions expected, a small craft advisory has been
expanded to include all of the open Gulf waters both to the east
and west of the Mississippi River, and the duration of the
advisory has been extended through Saturday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  88  64  85 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  69  90  68  86 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  66  88  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  73  86  73  82 /  10  20  20  20
GPT  68  86  67  84 /  20  20  10  10
PQL  64  86  64  84 /  20  20  10  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Saturday
     night for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CDT Saturday
     night for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion