315 FXUS63 KPAH 191645 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1145 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Summer-like 90s persist into this weekend, then cool toward climatological normals in the lower half 80s next week.
- A transition toward a wetter pattern with daily rain chances will bring welcomed relief to ongoing drought conditions by the end of next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A synoptic scale metamorphosis toward a more active flow pattern occurs over the weekend, heading into next week. It sets us up for a reintroduction of smallish rain chances that grows toward its peak in the high chance-low likely range by the start of the new week. While model differences exist, it is looking increasingly like this pattern shift will lead to a more fruitful precipitation duration, or at least chances thereof, that carries thru the entirety of the week and thereby offers some real relief to our exacerbating drought conditions. PW`s rising nearly a third, toward the 75th percentile, will assist with overall pcpn efficiency...as weekly storm totals push into the 1-2" range on average; some localized higher amounts in stronger storms may potentially bring more appreciable relief.
Coincident with the evolution toward the wetter pattern will come more clouds, lower overall heights, and a much welcomed cooldown in high temperatures toward climo norms. Highs still reaching/exceeding 90F will persist this weekend, then fall back toward the lower half 80s on the daily for next week.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The main concern this afternoon will be isolated thunderstorms near KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. Coverage will not be great, but any storms that develop will be capable of causing MVFR vsby reductions and gusty winds. Mid to high level clouds prevail into the overnight with a stray shower not ruled out, especially along I-64. Clouds scatter out Saturday morning with light & variable winds turning south around 4-6 kts.
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.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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DISCUSSION... AVIATION...DW
NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion