Yarnaby, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

512
FXUS64 KOUN 191738
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Above-normal temperatures through the weekend before
   potentially cooling down to near-normal by the middle of next
   week.
- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the weekend and
   into most of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to exit the area this
afternoon. No impacts are expected with this activity as it moves
out of the area. A shortwave trough will move southeastward across
the Plains this evening, fostering additional rain chances
overnight across north central Oklahoma. Given the steering flow,
any storms that do develop will move towards the southeast.
Overnight lows are expected to drop down into the upper 60s to low
70s across much of the area.
Bunker
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Additional rain chances are expected this weekend, especially
Saturday night into Sunday, as forcing from a weak shortwave
traverses the southern Plains. Given the thermodynamics this
weekend, any stronger storm that does develop may produce strong
to severe wind gusts.
Overall, temperatures will remain above average this weekend,
with slightly cooler temperatures Sunday compared to Saturday.
Bunker
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Next week, mean ensemble guidance shows a continuation of daily rain
chances with a potential "cool" down by midweek and temperatures
hovering near-normal for this time of year (70s to 80s). Cluster
analysis shows roughly a 60% chance for a large-scale positively
tilted trough axis to bring a cold front and continued moisture by
mid-week. The greatest uncertainty lies in the exact timing and
strength of this system as deterministic and ensemble guidance has
varying solutions. The trends of this next system will continue to
be monitored through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Once the remaining storms exit the Durant area, the aviation
forecast should be primarily VFR with mainly light southerly winds.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible in north central
Oklahoma after midnight into early Saturday morning.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  89  67  86 /   0  30  60  60
Hobart OK         70  91  66  91 /  10  30  70  40
Wichita Falls TX  71  93  68  92 /   0  20  50  50
Gage OK           66  85  61  83 /  10  30  60  10
Ponca City OK     67  88  65  83 /  40  50  60  50
Durant OK         68  93  70  90 /   0  10  20  50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion