Zimmerman, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

523
FXUS63 KMPX 151046
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
546 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue before more seasonable
temperatures return to end the week.
- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms exist Wednesday
into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
It`s warm and muggy early this morning with temperatures still in
the upper 60s to mid 70s just after 2am. To the west, a low
continues to spin over the Dakotas, with southerly flow sending
ample moisture into Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Showers and
storms along the Minnesota/South Dakota border have diminished
rapidly over the past few hours. Some afternoon redevelopment of
showers and storms may be possible across central and eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but the best forcing will be across
North Dakota and northern Minnesota as the trough lifts north of the
International Border. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with upper 80s and low 90s across much of southern and western
Minnesota and mid 80s elsewhere.
By Wednesday, an upper low becomes cut off over the Dakotas and sets
up shop there through the end of the work week with ridging
strengthens over the Great Lakes region. This will allow for an
unsettled stretch of weather into the first half of the weekend.
PoPs and QPF are highest across western Minnesota throughout this
time period (40-60 PoPs), but generally, the NBM`s blanket of 20-40
PoPs elsewhere seems reasonable. As mentioned in previous
discussions, this precip will mostly be diurnally driven as there is
no strong synoptic forcing. This also means the chances for
organized severe weather is low. Additionally, high temperatures are
expected to settle back towards mid September normals Thursday
through the end of the period. Four day QPF amounts range from 1-2"
(locally higher) for the western half of Minnesota with 0.25-0.5"
eastward into Wisconsin.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period with southeast
winds becoming more southerly by mid/late morning at around
10-15kts. Our westernmost sites may see gusts up to around
20kts this afternoon. Winds decrease this evening to 5kts or
less. Continued keeping all terminals dry this afternoon.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind S 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion